Editor’s note: Nikolas Badminton is the Chief Futurist and Think Tank leader at Futurist.com, a Fellow of the RSA, and the futurist that the world’s most impactful companies, and international media turn to for big ideas, new thinking and opinion. Badminton, a keynote speaker at ISACA’s EVOLVE emerging tech virtual conference, taking place 16-17 November, recently visited with ISACA Now to share his perspective on the business technology landscape. The following is a transcript of the interview, edited for length and clarity:
ISACA Now: How can business leaders best plan for the future in such a volatile period?
NB: Business leaders need to plan for multiple futures ahead of them and write the stories of their organizations in 10, 20 and 30-plus year horizons. They have to develop a foresight capability that helps executives and their teams get out of the day-to-day operations and into wide open space for creative thoughts on our futures.
Additionally, they need to scan for signals of change that indicate innovations and new trajectories in megatrends such as climate change, the water-energy-food nexus and population growth, as well as the growth of data, machine learning, sensor fusion and platforms that are changing and accelerating. Finally, they need to imagine both positive and dystopian futures so that they can anticipate risks and have a basis for better strategic planning today.
ISACA Now: Planning for multiple futures seems easier said than done. How can organizations account for multiple futures in their strategic planning?
NB: We’re locked into this idea that we need to be focused on what’s happening today, the next three months, the next year. I come from a technology background, so it’s what kind of portfolio are we delivering, what has priority, what has impact for the business, what’s essential – whereas, if we break from that and start thinking about ‘OK, what about in 10 years, what about in 20 years, what about in 30-plus years, where are we going to be?,’ then we can future-proof our business. There are studies out there that show that companies that do think about futures generally find themselves to be more profitable. One example of this is if you think about Elon Musk and you go back to the early days when he was talking about Tesla and SpaceX – no one had any faith, but he had this huge vision of where we could go.
ISACA Now: What intrigues you most about the evolving business technology landscape?
NB: We can’t just throw more ideas and more technology and more coolness at a company and make them relevant in the world. The business landscape has been overtaken a little bit by PR and marketers, and it needs to come back to the basics of legacy system upgrades, cybersecurity – solid product development that makes a lot of sense rather than ‘This is cool’ and ‘That is cool.’ You can waste a huge amount of money doing that. I’m not negating the relevance of emerging technologies, and I’m going to talk briefly at the EVOLVE conference about artificial general intelligence (AGI), quantum computing, blockchain and the ‘metaverse,’ but we need to get the basics of our systems architectures right. Deliver something amazing and simple and something that works, and I think that’s what people really want.
ISACA Now: You’ve advised powerhouse companies such as Google and Microsoft – what strikes you as a common thread among successful companies in this digital era?
NB: There is a common thread across large tech companies, engineering firms, the agri-food industry, finance and insurance and other industries – the lack of understanding of the big picture. They are often heads-down serving customers and often do not communicate as effectively as they need to throughout the organization. Without a bigger picture, and integrated foresight capabilities, they are missing huge opportunities for growth. Organizations’ community structures tend to break down at about 120 people. If you get larger than that, you might be a juggernaut making a ton of money, but you’re probably not going to be as effective with your communication. Imagine how much more money you can make and how many more challenges you can solve if you fix the communication problem.
ISACA Now: You have a new book ‘The Future Starts Now.’ What theme from the book do you think might surprise readers most?
NB: How diverse the futures field is. It’s wildly creative and it’s open season for new ideas, storytelling and experiential futures to inspire us to do and be more. My chapter is called “Start with Dystopia” and discusses how we need to face the fact that terrible futures can exist and empower us to be ready for them through solid planning and risk management. I am now writing a full book called “Facing Our Futures” on that for Bloomsbury, out in fall 2022.